How the Top 1% Make Decisions

Over the past year, I’ve gone deep into understanding how the most successful people think—specifically, how they make decisions. Not just the big moves like career pivots or investments, but the small, daily choices that stack up to shape their lives.

I read hundreds of pages, watched countless interviews, took notes from world-class performers—entrepreneurs, creatives, athletes, investors—and experimented with their strategies in real time.

Here’s what I found:
The top 1% don’t just make better decisions. They make decisions differently. Their thinking is built on frameworks, not feelings. Systems, not guesswork.

These are the key patterns that changed how I think—and might change how you decide.

1. They Prioritize Avoiding Bad Decisions

Most people think success is about making the “right” moves more often. But top performers flip that idea.

Instead of chasing brilliance, they focus on not being stupid.

As Charlie Munger famously put it:

That shift—avoiding clear mistakes over obsessing about genius moves—is foundational to how the best operate.

Try This: Before making a decision, ask:
“What’s the dumbest way this could go wrong?”
Then, don’t do that.

2. They Use Mental Models to See Clearly

Elite thinkers lean on mental models—proven frameworks to simplify complexity and avoid traps most people don’t even notice.

Here are three powerful ones I saw over and over again:

• Inversion: Ask, “What would guarantee I fail at this?” Then avoid those pitfalls.

• Opportunity Cost: Every “yes” is also a “no” to everything else. They choose carefully.

• Probabilistic Thinking: They don’t ask, “Will this work?” They ask, “What’s the likelihood this works, and what happens if it doesn’t?”

These aren’t just clever tools. They’re decision filters that lead to clearer, more confident choices.

Try This: The next time you face a big call, pause and run it through one mental model. Even five minutes of structured thinking beats hours of hand-wringing.

3. They Operate on Principles

I expected the most effective people to customize every decision. Instead, I found the opposite.

They rely on a few timeless principles they use across the board. It removes emotion, speeds up decisions, and reduces regret.

Here are a few I adopted:

• Regret Minimization: Will I wish I did this when I’m 80?

• Hell Yes or No: If it’s not an enthusiastic yes, it’s a no.

• First Principles Thinking: Break things down to what’s actually true, not just what’s commonly accepted.

Try This: Write down 3–5 decision principles that reflect your values. Keep them nearby. Use them often.

4. They Think in Long Timeframes

Average decision-makers optimize for what’s easy now.
Good ones look a few months ahead.
Great ones play the long game.

When Jeff Bezos started Amazon, his decisions only made sense on a 5–7 year time horizon. Most of his competitors were chasing quarterly wins. Guess who outlasted them?

Thinking longer-term creates leverage that’s invisible in the moment—but huge over time.

Try This: Before your next big decision, ask:

• How will I feel about this in 10 minutes?

• In 10 months?

• In 10 years?

Write your answers down. Watch your thinking shift.

5. They Design Their Environment for Better Choices

Top performers don’t leave decisions to chance—or willpower.

They create systems that make smart choices easier and bad ones harder.

Examples from my own life:

• No social media apps on my phone

• Pre-scheduled workouts

• No processed foods in the house

• Making big decisions early in the day when my energy’s highest

These aren’t massive shifts. But stacked together, they change everything.

Try This: Identify one recurring decision you tend to botch. Now redesign your environment to make that bad choice at least 20% harder to make.

TAKEAWAYS:

• Avoid obvious mistakes instead of chasing perfection

• Use mental models to simplify complex decisions

• Build principles you can rely on consistently

• Think long-term, act intentionally

• Set up your environment to support smart choices

Decision-making isn’t a talent—it’s a skill. One you can train.

Your Advanced Mindset

Michael, Founder of GritAndGraceMinds & SocietyOfFaith